Saturday, March 21, 2009

Monthly mass layoff events in United States

Back in the February of 2008, I noted in the Recession and mass layoffs that if the mass layoffs increase by a lot then it will be a sign of a recession. Since then the mass layoff events in the US have really gone up by a lot, not surprisingly the US in a deep recession right now. It will be very important to keep an eye on this number as we try to recover from this recession because if the economy starts to improve, the mass layoff number should come down or at least stabilize a little. 

The chart below shows the mass layoffs in the United States since March 2005. The data table below lists the data used to create the chart.


MonthMass layoff events
Mar-051,204
Apr-051,244
May-051,264
Jun-051,196
Jul-051,241
Aug-051,143
Sep-052,250
Oct-051,109
Nov-051,162
Dec-051,263
Jan-061,112
Feb-06960
Mar-061,078
Apr-061,198
May-061,132
Jun-061,156
Jul-061,204
Aug-061,278
Sep-061,167
Oct-061,195
Nov-061,209
Dec-061,201
Jan-071,261
Feb-071,240
Mar-071,261
Apr-071,281
May-071,200
Jun-071,256
Jul-071,288
Aug-071,262
Sep-071,279
Oct-071,346
Nov-071,352
Dec-071,469
Jan-081,476
Feb-081,669
Mar-081,585
Apr-081,344
May-081,701
Jun-081,717
Jul-081,535
Aug-081,887
Sep-082,290
Oct-082,204
Nov-082,333
Dec-082,275
Jan-092,227
Feb-092,769

Datasource: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/mmls.nr0.htm

Median and Average House Prices in United States

The following chart shows the median and average house prices in the United States since 1963. The house prices are listed on the Y scale and the years are listed on the X scale. The data used to produce this chart is listed in the table below the chart.

YearMedian house priceAverage house price
1963$18,000 $19,300
1964 $ 18,900 $20,500
1965 $ 20,000 $21,500
1966 $ 21,400 $23,300
1967 $ 22,700 $24,600
1968 $ 24,700 $26,600
1969 $ 25,600 $27,900
1970 $ 23,400 $26,600
1971 $ 25,200 $28,300
1972 $ 27,600 $30,500
1973 $ 32,500 $35,500
1974 $ 35,900 $38,900
1975 $ 39,300 $42,600
1976 $ 44,200 $48,000
1977 $ 48,800 $54,200
1978 $ 55,700 $62,500
1979 $ 62,900 $71,800
1980 $ 64,600 $76,400
1981 $ 68,900 $83,000
1982 $ 69,300 $83,900
1983 $ 75,300 $89,800
1984 $ 79,900 $97,600
1985 $ 84,300 $100,800
1986 $ 92,000 $111,900
1987 $ 104,500 $127,200
1988 $ 112,500 $138,300
1989 $ 120,000 $148,800
1990 $ 122,900 $149,800
1991 $ 120,000 $147,200
1992 $ 121,500 $144,100
1993 $ 126,500 $147,700
1994 $ 130,000 $154,500
1995 $ 133,900 $158,700
1996 $ 140,000 $166,400
1997 $ 146,000 $176,200
1998 $ 152,500 $181,900
1999 $ 161,000 $195,600
2000 $ 169,000 $207,000
2001 $ 175,200 $213,200
2002 $ 187,600 $228,700
2003 $ 195,000 $246,300
2004 $ 221,000 $274,500
2005 $ 240,900 $297,000
2006 $ 246,500 $305,900
2007 $ 247,900 $313,600
2008 $ 231,400 $292,400

Datasource: http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Bank of America (BAC) Share Buybacks

How much did Bank of America spend buying back its own stock in the open market in the last decade? The answer will surprise you. It was over $65 Billions. According to the calculations I did by going over the last 10 annual reports (10-K sec filings) of the Bank of America, the company bought back 1,183,126,000 (over 1 Billion) shares in the buyback or repurchase programs over the last 10 years.

BAC was buying back its own stock all the way into late 2007, but it did not buyback a single share in the year 2008. Basically, when the stock price was high, the profits were used to buyback the overpriced shares and when the stock price went down, there was nothing left to buyback the lower priced shares. It is funny how this works out! The current market capitalization of Bank of America is about 36 Billion as I type this. How does that make you feel if you own the stock?

The table below lists the numbers compiled from the annual reports of the Bank of America. If you ask me, this is a bigger scandal. I do not understand why this kind of shenanigans and wrong decisions by management and board are not discussed enough.

Let me tell you why this is a $65 Billion scandal. This is a scandal because the $65 Billion spent on buybacks did not reduce the number of shares outstanding.  Look at this quote from the 1999 10-K report. “As of March 15, 1999, there were 1,739,020,301 shares of the registrant's common stock outstanding”.  Accounting for the 2:1 split of the 2004, we can say that there were about 3,478,040,602 shares outstanding on the March 15, 1999. Now, look at this quote from the 2007 annual report. “As of February 25, 2008, there were 4,442,228,781 shares of Common Stock outstanding.” This means that after spending $65 Billion on buying back over 1.1 Billion shares from 1999 to 2007, the number of shares outstanding actually went up. It went up by about 1 Billion shares instead of going down by 1 Billion shares. This looks like $130 Billion scandal to me!

Where did all the money go? Why the number of shares outstanding went up by 1 Billion shares? What is going on here? What did the share buybacks accomplished?


Year endingShares bought backAverage price paidDollars spent
31-Dec-07 73,730,000 $ 51.42 $ 3,791,196,600 *
31-Dec-06 291,100,000 $ 49.35 $14,365,785,000 **
31-Dec-05 126,437,000 $ 45.61 $ 5,766,791,570 **
31-Dec-04 147,859,000 $ 42.52 $ 6,286,964,680 **
31-Dec-03 129,000,000 $ 75.76 $ 9,773,040,000 ***
31-Dec-02 109,000,000 $ 68.55 $ 7,471,950,000 ***
31-Dec-01 82,000,000 $ 57.58 $ 4,721,560,000 ***
31-Dec-00 146,000,000 $ 55.74 $ 8,138,040,000 ****
31-Dec-99 78,000,000 $ 62.28 $ 4,857,840,000 *****
 Totals 1,183,126,000 $ 55.09 $65,173,167,850

Sources:
* - Page 8 
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000119312508041665/d10k.htm

** - Page 146
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000119312507042036/d10k.htm

*** - Page 109
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000119312504032312/dex13.htm

**** - Page 86
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095016801000538/0000950168-01-000538-0001.txt

***** - Page 77 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/0000950168-00-000621.txt

Friday, March 06, 2009

Vanguard website troubles

Since Vanguard redesigned the website a little while ago, it has been acting very slow. The site runs extremely slow in Internet Explorer and sometimes it hangs for me. I notice that every time I go to the funds page listed in the screenshot below, my CPU spikes 100% for about 10 seconds and sometimes I have to close my Internet Explorer and start all over again. I have to say that Firefox and Google Chrome work a little better. But, I am not writing about IE vs. Firefox and Chrome here. I am writing about the Vanguard here.

Vanguard is a provider of low cost index funds. Vanguard is all about simplifying the investing process. Vanguard is simple and straightforward. Vanguard's funds are simple and straightforward. Their website needs to be simple. But it is not. Since the last website update, it has been a pain going to their website.

Look at the screenshot below. I filtered how much JavaScript gets loaded on the funds page. 153 KB!!!!. My browser loads 153KB of JavaScript just to show me my daily fund prices. This is too much. Where is the low cost solution for this? It should be 15KB or less, not 153KB. This much bandwidth must be costing a lot of money.


I also filtered for the total CSS that comes thru. It is 48 KB.

So, a total of about 200KB of unnecessary (not really necessary) "stuff" comes over the wire when I go to check my fund prices. This is the reason site is too slow.

Update: I looked into this some more and I see that some of JavaScript files are not even minified. The minified JavaScript should speed up the page a little and can save some bandwidth.